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Five railroad picks

Why to buy these stocks -- and why not

Thursday, November 05, 2009

Union Pacific :

$59.15 (U.S.)

Why buy: A better balance sheet than most, with a low debt-to-EBITDA ratio and more cash per share. The cheapest U.S. railroad based on trailing earnings.

Why not: Posted the lowest free cash flow of the four U.S. railways in the last four quarters.

Omaha-based, it serves the west and Mexico.

CSX : $45.47 (U.S.)

Why buy: One of the most affordable railways, based on forward P/E.

Why not: One of the most leveraged, as measured by debt-to-EBITDA and debt as a percentage of enterprise value.

Jacksonville, Fla.-based CSX serves 23 states east of the Mississippi River and stretches into Ontario.

Norfolk Southern : $49.86 (U.S.)

Why buy: Leads U.S. railroads in profit and operating margins and threw off nearly as much free cash as Burlington Northern – with about half the revenue.

Why not: That's already priced in, giving it a high P/E. Plus, its ROA and ROE trail competitors.

Based in Norfolk, Va., it's the eastern competitor to CSX.

Canadian Pacific (CP):

$48.72 (Cdn)

Why buy: Better margins than Burlington Northern as it

attempts a rebound

Why not: Industry-low ROA and ROE, vulnerability to one large coal-shipping customer.

The Calgary-based company is Canada's second-largest railway company as measured by total track miles.

Canadian National (CNR)

$53.72 (Cdn)

Why buy: The best margins thanks to low expense ratios

Why not: Stock hasn't dropped as much as competitors', so rebound potential is less.

Montreal-based CN's track stretches from the Atlantic to the Pacific to the Gulf of Mexico.

Sources: Capital IQ; analyst reports, interviews

© The Globe and Mail


 

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