VANCOUVER — General Motors will make good on its plan to deliver a gasoline/electric plug-in hybrid vehicle by late 2010, and testing of the lithium-ion batteries powering the car will begin this July, says Beth Lowery, GM vice-president for environmental affairs and energy.
"You're right, we've got to deliver" a production-ready version of the Chevrolet Volt concept car, she said following an appearance at the Globe 2008 environmental conference. "We will keep you up to date on our progress — no surprises. We just have so much riding on it, we can't have surprises."
GM, in fact, has been sounding a steady drumbeat of announcements on the hybrid and battery front, as well as pushing the case for ethanol-powered vehicles as environmentally friendly.
The company used the recent Geneva Motor Show to tout the 2010 mass production of hybrid vehicles that use lithium-ion batteries and, in many cases, turbocharged small-displacement gasoline engines. That combination will let GM use the hybrid system on any size vehicle it produces.
GM is not alone here. At the Geneva show, Mercedes announced that its S-Class sedans will come in a hybrid version next year. It, too, will use a lithium-ion battery system and other auto makers have signed on to use the Mercedes batteries.
Toyota has also said it will roll out low-emission vehicles using lithium-ion batteries in the near future, as has Ford. Honda is using them in its FCX Clarity hydrogen fuel-cell vehicle right now. And Tesla Motors, a specialty company in California, is to begin production this month of a fully electric sports car using a package of nearly 7,000 laptop computer batteries with a catacomb of cooling channels.
Of all the developments needed to create a truly environmentally friendly car, batteries are emerging as the most critical — the real hub of any hybrid project. But it is not clear yet whether lithium-ion batteries, common in laptops and cellphones, may finally be ready for prime time in vehicles.
The world's auto makers as a group believe lithium-ion batteries are better suited to power hybrids — and eventually fully electric vehicles — than current nickel-metal-hydride batteries. However, problems with heat management, durability and safety must be overcome.
Lithium-ion batteries also do not work well in cold weather and they are costly. On the other hand, they are lighter and smaller than other types of batteries, which make them perfect for packaging in a vehicle.
The lithium-ion battery GM will use in its second generation of hybrids is a quarter the size of the nickel-metal-hydride batteries it now is using.
"We need a battery that is very compact and is very light," says Lowery. "Lithium-ion is a great enabler for that."
Nonetheless, GM plans to remain mum on which supplier will provide the batteries for the Volt's next-generation lithium-ion power supply until the second half of the year. There are limits, apparently, to corporate transparency.
Meanwhile, though, with oil prices topping $108 (U.S.) a barrel and the U.S. economy apparently in the early stages of a recession, GM is looking at a shrinking market for its products, particularly the pickup and SUVs that deliver virtually all GM's profits in North America.
"Oil at $108 a barrel is not a good thing for us," Lowery says, adding that spiking pump prices only underscore the need for the United States to "get off its petroleum dependence."
GM has been one of the most vocal auto makers on this topic. To back up the rhetoric, GM has been pursuing a number of technologies, not just the Volt's plug-in system.
In Geneva, GM vice-chairman Bob Lutz pointed to advances in his company's new "mild" hybrid system as an example of one of the many technologies directions GM is developing. The new powertrain is an upgrade on the automaker's current Belt Alternator Starter, or BAS, drivetrain that is used on hybrids such as the Saturn Aura and Chevrolet Malibu.
The so-called "mild" powertrain gets limited fuel savings because it doesn't generally drive on electric power alone — in contrast to the more efficient "full" system in Toyota's Prius car and GM's own Two-Mode Hybrid Chevrolet Tahoe. The new mild system from GM will be able to drive on electric power alone at very low speeds.
As with the Volt project, the key to this other hybrid upgrade is in the batteries. GM plans to use more powerful lithium-ion batteries, calling the new system "BAS-plus." In this case, the first supply contract for the batteries reportedly will go to Japan's Hitachi Ltd.
Lutz said in Geneva that the lithium-ion battery would provide a charge of 120 volts, compared with the 30-some volts GM currently gets from nickel-metal hydride batteries.
The system will deliver more than the 12- to 15-per-cent fuel economy boost of GM's current BAS system. The system is less expensive than other electric-only driving hybrid systems and therefore more cost-effective for consumers.
GM, like other auto makers, is struggling to balance costs with benefits for hybrid systems.ƒo
ď Also important in any environmental debate about hybrids is the question of the source for the electricity used by plug-in hybrids, or any other electric car.
Electricity that comes from dirty, coal-fired plants remains an environmental problem. And half of the electricity in the United States is generated by coal-fired plants.
What is certain is that plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles like the Chevrolet Volt will burn less gas. How much less is not known.
Supporters of plug-in hybrids — a movement started in California by academic researchers — tout massive fuel economy gains. Several demonstration vehicles have shown fuel economy of 1.0-1.5 litres/100 km or better. What would happen in real-world usage has yet to be proven.
There is also the issue of cost. No auto maker offers a production plug-in now, but conversion companies today charge $10,000 to $12,000 per vehicle. Even with gas topping $4 a gallon in some parts of the U.S., fuel is a relatively small part of the overall costs of owning and operating a vehicle, thus few would be willing to absorb a significant additional cost to enhance fuel economy.
This means, says Lowery, a plug-in hybrid is a risky proposition, and a more expensive proposition than a regular hybrid. An extended-range electric vehicle is riskier still.
Yet she and others insist that as a company GM believes the potential rewards that will accrue from building a successful plug-in make the effort and the risks worthwhile.
GM officials, in fact, suggest off the record that it is difficult to quantify the benefit of being seen as an environmental leader, but it is real nonetheless and they cite Toyota as an example of one company that has particularly benefited from its reputation as a green leader among auto makers.
Therefore, at meetings with dealers and others, GM officials have been actively outlining detailed marketing plans for hybrids and other environmentally friendly technology, such as E85 — a fuel blend of 85 per cent ethanol, 15 per cent gasoline.
"Their desire is for GM to take the lead in being green," says a dealer who asked not to be identified.
Hybrid technology is not particularly controversial, just unproven in plug-in form. Ethanol, though, is another matter entirely.
GM, says Lowery, thinks it can make ethanol a big player in the quest to cut greenhouse gas emissions and wean North Americans from their addiction to oil. To prove it, GM has bought a stake in Warrenville, Ill.-based Coskata Inc., a private company that claims to have developed an advanced process to make ethanol cheaply from waste products.
Today, ethanol needs government subsidies in order to be cost-competitive with gasoline and diesel.
"It does have to be subsidized, but every new technology needs to be subsidized," says Lowery.
Coskata's plan is to use agricultural waste and household garbage to make ethanol, which means fuel production wouldn't push food prices up. Coskata also claims its production will be so efficient that it won't give back all the oil savings just making the stuff.
"There is no question in my mind that making ethanol more widely available is absolutely the most effective and environmentally sound solution," GM chairman Rick Wagoner said in January when GM announced its relationship with Coskata. "And it's one that can be acted on immediately."
Ethanol, though, has its problems. It is 25-per-cent less efficient in cars than gasoline, so to be cost competitive it must be subsidized. It cannot be pumped through existing gasoline fuel lines and tanks. There are only about 1,400 ethanol pumps in the U.S. — and a meagre two or three ethanol filling stations in Canada. Perhaps most damning of all, however, is new research that suggests biofuels such as ethanol are actually a greenhouse threat.
Two studies recently published in the prestigious journal Science conclude that almost all biofuels used today cause more greenhouse gas emissions than conventional fuels if the full emissions costs of producing these "green" fuels are taken into account.
These studies take a detailed, comprehensive look at the emissions effects of the huge amount of natural land that is being converted to cropland globally to support biofuels development.
Globally, the production of almost all biofuels resulted, directly or indirectly, intentionally or not, in new lands being cleared, either for food or fuel. The destruction of natural ecosystems to grow fuel crops results in a significant greenhouse gas contribution.
Lowery and others at GM argue that Coskata's process can change both the economics and the negative environmental impact of ethanol.
Coskata's process cooks agricultural waste, old tires, wood, and household garbage at 982 degrees Celsius. Then bacteria eat the carbon monoxide and hydrogen to make ethanol. Coskata officials claim that one unit of energy can produce 7.7 units of energy, which is far more efficient than using corn. And the cost for production is about $1 (U.S.) per gallon.
Lowery and others at GM have said that making ethanol cheaper, eliminating the political hurdles and answering any environmental concerns could kick-start more ethanol use.
GM has a stake in seeing this happen. The company sells 11 ethanol-capable vehicles and wants half of its 80 or so vehicles capable by 2012.
Environmentalists generally are not opposed to using ethanol if it is produced not from food or from forest products, but instead from waste products and in an efficient way.
"Let's go forward with sustainable ethanol," says Lowery, adding it is part of a larger GM strategy to develop a range of environmental technologies.
© The Globe and Mail
