Investors will wake up the day after Valentine's day this week and start what will likely be a multi-year fling with a new man: Ben S. Bernanke.
The new chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board delivers his first report on the economy and fed policy this Wednesday, after formally replacing Alan Greenspan at a swearing-in ceremony last week.
The bets are that Mr. Bernanke will look to establish himself as an inflation fighter, and futures markets are already predicting higher interest rates this year. A five per cent federal funds rate by July is in the cards, some investors are signalling.
However Mr. Bernanke may also try not to sound overly aggressive, lest he worry market players convinced the U.S. economy is riding on the back of the booming but interest-rate-sensitive housing market.
Advance retail sales numbers for January come out on Valentine's Day Tuesday, and month-over-month numbers for December come out a week later on the 21st. Investors will be looking to see how hot the winter holiday shopping season was, as well as for clues about the overall health of the American consumer, whose spending kept the U.S. economy humming along in 2005.
There are no major economic announcements out of Canada next week, so the focus will be primarily south of the border. However commodities will dominate the Canadian earnings spotlight, as two of the country's biggest names are set to report.
Mining giant Inco Ltd. reports fourth quarter results on Tuesday. Inco's $12.5-billion friendly takeover offer for rival Falconbridge Ltd. was originally scheduled to close on Dec. 23 of last year, but has been pushed back to Feb. 28. the transaction would create the world's biggest nickel producer.
Calgary-based EnCana Corp. reports fourth-quarter results the day after Inco. Energy shares have weighed on the Toronto Stock Exchange lately, thanks to a slide in natural gas prices. Energy stocks comprise more than 28 per cent of the S&P/TSX index.
Precision Drilling Corp. and Yellow Pages Income Fund are among the big name Canadian companies reporting fourth-quarter results on Wednesday.
MONDAY, FEB. 13
Earnings
- Silver Wheaton Corp. reports fourth-quarter results. Analysts expect a share profit of 5 cents.
- Shermag Inc. reports third-quarter results. Analysts expect a share loss of 2 cents compared with a profit of 17 cents a year earlier.
- Van Houtte Inc. reports third-quarter results. Analysts expect a share profit of 30 cents compared with 25 cents.
- Glamis Gold Ltd. reports fourth-quarter and 2005 results. Analysts expect a share profit of 9 cents (U.S.) compared with 5 cents a year earlier.
TUESDAY, FEB. 14
Other
- Quebec's emerging leadership in venture capital is expected to be a theme when Rick Nathan, president of Canadian Venture Capital Association, presents in Toronto statistics for 2005, including investment by region and industry sector.
- The Conference Board of Canada hosts the Commercializing Coalbed Methane Conference today and tomorrow in Calgary.
- Merrill Lynch out of London is scheduled to release its February poll of global fund managers and their views on investments and economics.
Earnings
- Inco Ltd. reports fourth-quarter results. Analysts expect a share profit of 51 cents (U.S.) compared with $1.19 a year earlier.
- Inmet Mining Corp. reports fourth-quarter results. Analysts expect a share profit of $1.09 (Canadian) compared with 37 cents.
- CAE Inc. reports third-quarter results. Analysts expect a share profit of 8 cents compared with 5 cents.
- George Weston Ltd. reports fourth-quarter results. Analysts expect a share profit of $1.50 compared with $1.93.
Economics
- New-motor-vehicles sales for December are reported by Statistics Canada. Economists expect them to be flat from November.
WEDNESDAY, FEB. 15
Other
- Time for Ben Bernanke's close-up: The newly minted chairman of the Federal Reserve Board discusses its semiannual monetary policy report before the U.S. Senate's banking committee in Washington.
- The Conference Board of Canada releases a detailed five-year forecast of the country's tourism industry as part of its Winter 2006 Industrial Outlook series. // The board's website says tourism profit will reach a record high this year, at close to $1.5-billion, but drop in 2007 and 2008, as new travel security measures reduce the number of U.S. visitors, then recover after that.
Earnings
- EnCana Corp. reports fourth-quarter results. Analysts expect a share profit of $1.50 (U.S.) compared with 62 cents a year earlier.
- Hewlett-Packard Co. reports first-quarter results. Analysts expect a share profit of 44 cents (U.S.) compared with 37 cents.
- Mittal Steel Co. reports fourth-quarter results. Analysts expect a share profit of 76 ce nts (U.S.) compared with $2.42.
- Canfor Corp. reports fourth-quarter results. Analysts expect a share profit of 9 cents (Canadian), unchanged from a year earlier.
- Finning International Inc. reports fourth-quarter results. Analysts expect a share profit of 42 cents, unchanged.
THURSDAY, FEB. 16
Earnings
- DaimlerChrysler AG reports fourth-quarter results. Analysts expect a share profit of $1.16 (U.S.) compared with 70 cents a year earlier.
- Dell Inc. reports fourth-quarter results. Analysts expect a share profit of 41 cents (U.S.) compared with 37 cents.
- Stratos Global reports fourth-quarter results. Analysts expect a share profit of 3 cents (U.S.) compared with 14 cents.
- Target Corp. reports fourth-quarter results. Analysts expect a share profit of $1.05 (U.S.) compared with 9 cents.
- Boardwalk REIT reports fourth-quarter results. Analysts expect a share profit of 1 cent (Canadian) compared with a loss of 2 cents a year earlier.
- Great West Lifeco Inc. reports fourth-quarter results. Analysts expect a share profit of 52 cents compared with 48 cents.
- ING Canada Inc. reports fourth-quarter results. Analysts expect a share profit of $1.03 compared with $1.29.
- West Fraser Timber Co. reports fourth-quarter results. Analysts expect a share loss of 14 cents compared with a profit of 35 cents a year earlier.
- Quebecor Inc. reports fourth-quarter results. Analysts expect a share profit of 88 cents compared with 82 cents.
Economics
- Statistics Canada releases its monthly survey of manufacturers for December. Economists expect they rose 1 per cent from November.
- The Bank of Canada review comes out.
FRIDAY, FEB. 17
Other
- More than 150 exhibitors are expected to display their wares at the Canadian International Auto Show, which begins today and runs to Feb. 26 in Toronto.
Earnings
- Telus Corp. reports fourth-quarter results. Analysts expect a share profit of 27 cents compared with 38 cents a year earlier.
- Nexen Inc. reports fourth-quarter results. Analysts expect a share profit of $1.28 compared with 94 cents.
Economics
- Statistics Canada releases wholesale trade data for December. Economists expect sales rose 0.5 per cent from November.
All earnings forecasts are mean estimates of analysts polled by Thomson First Call.
© The Globe and Mail
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