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Bernanke's debut

Globe and Mail Update

Investors will wake up the day after Valentine's day this week and start what will likely be a multi-year fling with a new man: Ben S. Bernanke.

The new chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board delivers his first report on the economy and fed policy this Wednesday, after formally replacing Alan Greenspan at a swearing-in ceremony last week.

The bets are that Mr. Bernanke will look to establish himself as an inflation fighter, and futures markets are already predicting higher interest rates this year. A five per cent federal funds rate by July is in the cards, some investors are signalling.

However Mr. Bernanke may also try not to sound overly aggressive, lest he worry market players convinced the U.S. economy is riding on the back of the booming but interest-rate-sensitive housing market.

Advance retail sales numbers for January come out on Valentine's Day Tuesday, and month-over-month numbers for December come out a week later on the 21st. Investors will be looking to see how hot the winter holiday shopping season was, as well as for clues about the overall health of the American consumer, whose spending kept the U.S. economy humming along in 2005.

There are no major economic announcements out of Canada next week, so the focus will be primarily south of the border. However commodities will dominate the Canadian earnings spotlight, as two of the country's biggest names are set to report.

Mining giant Inco Ltd. reports fourth quarter results on Tuesday. Inco's $12.5-billion friendly takeover offer for rival Falconbridge Ltd. was originally scheduled to close on Dec. 23 of last year, but has been pushed back to Feb. 28. the transaction would create the world's biggest nickel producer.

Calgary-based EnCana Corp. reports fourth-quarter results the day after Inco. Energy shares have weighed on the Toronto Stock Exchange lately, thanks to a slide in natural gas prices. Energy stocks comprise more than 28 per cent of the S&P/TSX index.

Precision Drilling Corp. and Yellow Pages Income Fund are among the big name Canadian companies reporting fourth-quarter results on Wednesday.

MONDAY, FEB. 13

Earnings

TUESDAY, FEB. 14

Other

Earnings

Economics

WEDNESDAY, FEB. 15

Other

Earnings

THURSDAY, FEB. 16

Earnings

Economics

FRIDAY, FEB. 17

Other

Earnings

Economics

All earnings forecasts are mean estimates of analysts polled by Thomson First Call.

© The Globe and Mail

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