She stood firm and won.
Veronika Hirsch, president of Hirsch Asset Management Corp., bested eight other contenders, including a baby orangutan, to win this year's My One And Only stock-picking contest and her prize -- a Globe and Mail mug.
Ms. Hirsch, who manages five funds, picked Gulf Canada Resources Ltd., which was taken over by U.S. oil giant Conoco Inc. in August. She turned down a chance to switch to another stock, choosing instead to cash in her chips when Gulf Canada stopped trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange at $12.36 in July, up an impressive 61.6 per cent since the beginning of 2001.
Ms. Hirsch's decision to stand her ground proved wise in light of the fact that most of her competitors' picks -- which must be held for the entire year as long as they are still trading -- ended flat or under water.
Runnerup Steve Misener, a veteran money manager who has been in the contest since its inception in 1997, was a distant second with his pick, plastic packaging maker Intertape Polymer Group Inc. (ITP-TSE), which finished the year up 20.5 per cent.
Last May, however, Montreal-based Intertape Polymer soared to $24 from $11 at the start of the year. Mr. Misener won our contest in 1999 with his pick of BCE Emergis, which soared an incredible 459.6 per cent that year.
In third place was Moshe Milevsky, a finance professor at York University who picked Quebec City-based Industrial Alliance Life Insurance Co. (IAG-TSE). The stock went public in February, 2000, at $15.75 a share. It closed the year at $46.65, up 16.5 per cent for 2001.
These were the only stocks in the contest that finished above water in 2001, a year that saw the Toronto Stock Exchange 300 composite index drop 12.6 per cent on a total-return basis, which includes reinvested dividends.
In fourth place in this year's contest is Sharon Ranson, whose pick, Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD-TSE), fell 2.8 per cent last year.
Jahe, a baby orangutan from the Toronto zoo, picked Thomson Corp. (TOC-TSE) with last year's random choice. Thomson finished down 14 per cent, placing Jahe fifth.
The little simian edged out Patrick McKeough, editor and publisher of The Successful Investor newsletter, whose selection, BCE Inc. (BCE-TSE), fell 14.2 per cent in 2001, putting him in sixth spot.
Also-ran contestants this year, in order of their rankings in the contest, are three fund managers: Rohit Sehgal of Dynamic Mutual Funds, Andrew McCreath of Synergy Canadian Growth Class and Ian Joseph of Altamira Capital Growth Fund.
Mr. Sehgal's pick, Ensign Resource Services Inc. (ESI-TSE), fell 26.8 per cent; Mr. McCreath's selection, Mosaid Technologies Inc. (MSD-TSE), sank 60.2 per cent; and Mr. Joseph's candidate, Nortel Networks Corp. (NT-TSE), plunged 75.3 per cent.
At the end of each year's competition -- in which entrants select just one stock trading on the TSE at $1 or more -- the bottom four players are dropped from the contest. The top four stock pickers go on to next year's round. Players are ranked by the total return produced by their stock, including dividends, during the calendar year.
So, this year we say goodbye to Mr. McKeough, who won our initial contest in 1997 and was the top human being in the 2000 contest when CAE Inc. scored a respectable 149.3-per-cent return. He and his peers were beaten that year by our random contestant, a windup clockwork Santa, whose pick, Denbury Resources Inc., climbed a sizzling 179.2 per cent.
Warning: The contest does not make a sound basis for a mini-portfolio.
The simple average of the picks was a loss of about 12 per cent, which was close to the TSE 300's loss on a total-return basis.
And, of course, the results are no reflection on the performance of the various managers' funds. Thanks to all good sports for participating.
© The Globe and Mail
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